LearnBaseball.US

This is written more for fantasy newcomers and is a slightly edited version that I sent to a new friend last week.

At certain positions (3B/2B), the difference between the #3 guy and the #10 isn’t much at all, where at others…it is (SS). Identifying where you can’t wait is the real secret of a draft. Ideally, you’re trying to get the most value out of every pick you make. So, if there’s very little difference between the 9th third baseman and the 3rd one…why not wait?

1. Strong outfielders are in short supply. Get an elite one (or two) if you can. Matt Kemp, Carlos Gonzalez, and a step down like McCutchen, Ellsbury, Justin Upton ( 5 category guys), guys like that. When you’re playing fantasy baseball, either roto or head-to head, place a priority on filling out as many categories as possible whenever you pick. That leads me to my next point, which is…

2. One category players like closers and SB guys have their place, just not early on. It’s much better to try and get 4-5 guys that steal 15-25 bases to go along with power numbers than waste a top fifty pick on Michael Bourn.

Besides, you could steal someone like Dee Gordon (SS-LAD) later and get a huge SB total if you miss out on the elite SS (Tulo, Reyes, Hanley). To use the closer example, if you get 90% of Rivera’s saves or more in round 15 instead of round 5…that’s a great deal.

3. SS & C are the toughest elite power positions.

4. You can wait on a 2B/3B. Guys like Jason Kipnis/Dustin Ackley and even ARod and Kevin Youkilis can be had a little later than usual.

5. Lean towards American League hitters and National League pitchers. This doesn’t matter that much for closers but make life easier for yourself. Get NL pitchers that have to face 6-7 good hitters in a lineup vs. AL pitchers that see 7-9 good ones.

6. Be careful of your WHIP (walks + hits/innings pitched). It’ll creep up on you and blow up if you’re not careful.

7. Values: Josh Johnson back from injury, Gio Gonzalez (moved to the NL), your guy Paul Goldschmidt, Sergio Santos in TOR, Emilio Bonifacio (multi-position 3b/ss/of & cheap SB’s), 3B Mike Moustakas (elite power ceiling and will play a ton…can be had late in most leagues), Jair Jurrjens, Jason Kipnis and yes, Adam Dunn.

8. Watch out for guys with inning limits like Stephen Strasburg. Guys like Matt Moore & Chris Sale are better buys even though they’re fifth starters because they’re not limited.

9. Injuries to avoid: Grady Sizemore, Scott Sizemore, AJ Burnett, Ryan Howard (back in June?), Carl Crawford.

10. When looking at numbers on most any site, you’re better to look at 2011 stats than 2012 projections some intern wrote. When you do look at 2011 numbers, take into account players like Kipnis & Goldschmidt that had limited at-bats in their first taste of major league baseball. Those players almost always get undervalued.

Two links that may help:

http://games.espn.go.com/frontpage/flbdraftkit

http://rotoworld.com/teams/depth-charts/mlb.aspx

Have gotten a few requests for some fantasy baseball advice, so here we go!! Let’s take a look a a group of undervalued players!

1. 3B Kevin Youkilis – Boston
Until last year, Youkilis’ OPS had gone up every season. He was a consensus top 30 player in drafts last year. He’s in the midst of a loaded offensive lineup and is healthy and ready to go again. So, why is he ranked 11th among third basemen by ESPN’s projections? He’ll go in drafts around the 5th round.

2. SP Josh Johnson – Miami
Yeah, remember the guy that dominated MLB in 2010 (2.30 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and a K per IP) and was off to a better start in 2011 (60 IP, 56K, 1.64 ERA, 0.98 WHIP)? He’s back, healthy and ready to roll. I was able to snag him for my squad at #81 overall (9th pick in round #7 in a 12 team league). That’s phenomenal value.

3. 1B Paul Goldschmidt – Arizona
This kind of power upside doesn’t come along very often. Goldschmidt has .300-30-100 potential and is in the midst of a pretty good lineup. Looks like a nice utility player option in round 8/9.

4. OF/1B Yonder Alonso – San Diego
Yes, playing in Petco Park will dampen Alonso’s homer total. However, this guy is a premier hitter in my mind. He’ll hit and get on base at high clips and will knock in more runs than a player you can get in round twenty or beyond should. If you’re in a keeper league, this is EXACTLY the kind of player you should target. Young with playing time with elite upside.

5. RHP Jair Jurrjens – Atlanta
Yes, he had recurring knee issues last year. The Atlanta GM has said publicly that Jurrjens would have been ready to go in October. He had an ERA under three (2.96), a WHIP of 1.22, 13 wins and 90 K’s in 152 innings. That’s a lot of production for a player you can get in round 15 or so. I got him in round 17 twice this weekend.

6. RHP Alexi Ogando – Texas
Yes, Ogando faded in the second half of 2011 (ERA of 4.48 vs 2.92 before the All-Star break). When you look at it, an ERA of 3.51 over 169 innings as a first-year starter in Texas is great!! I was able to get him in round 18 of two Yahoo drafts Saturday (12 team leagues).

Next up, a strategy guide for drafts on Tuesday!

Wasn’t it great to see Prince Fielder with his Tiger hat today?? Adding his bat will replace the loss of Victor Martinez and should add some more production on top of what they lost. And who knows, perhaps Martinez can get back in time for the post-season?? However, the real key to Detroit’s success may be in the hands of RHP Rick Porcello. Take a peek at Porcello’s splits by month from 2011:

APRIL: 5 GS, 4.25 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, .303 BAA
MAY: 4 GS, 3.52 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, .217 BAA
JUNE: 6 GS, 6.97 ERA, 1.81 WHIP, .343 BAA
JULY: 5 GS, 3.06 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, .240 BAA
AUGUST: 6 GS, 6.82 ERA, 1.67 WHIP, .353 BAA
SEPTEMBER: 5 GS, 3.55 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, .258 BAA

I mean, talk about up and down!?! The Tigers have a strong staff with Verlander, Scherzer and Fister aboard. Leaving the possible arrival of top prospect Jacob Turner aside, if the strong Rick Porcello shows up and stays for the season – look out American League!

1. The Padres netted a phenomenal hitter in Yonder Alonso and a very promising young catcher in Grandal. Expect deals from the Padres involving 1B Anthony Rizzo in the short-term and Nick Hundley in the long-term (next off-season). I’m sure the organization had questions about Latos and his shoulder going forward, not to mention what potential arbitration awards would be.

Alonso was spectacular to watch when I first saw him in the Cape League. He has tremendous strike zone judgment and was impossible to fool with the same pitch twice. Defensively, he’s just not a left fielder. Plant him at first and leave him there.

For the Reds, a rotation led by Cueto and Latos will challenge for the NL Central crown. Just look at what’s happened within the division. In St. Louis, Chris Carpenter is 37 at the end of April and Adam Wainwright is coming off Tommy John surgery. Yes, it’ll be about sixteen months since the injury on Opening Day 2012 but he’ll still need time to round into shape and get the feel of his pitches back. And some guy named Albert Pujols left Saint Louis for L.A.

Prince Fielder will leave Milwaukee and the Brewers may get a taste of life without Ryan Braun (50 game suspension pending). Talk about lowering the octane levels in that gas tank! That leaves an opening for Cincinnati. They’ve had a taste of the playoffs and the move for Latos sends a clear signal that GM Walt Jocketty believes that the club is ready to make a run. We’ll see who they get to close and whether Zach Cozart can handle everyday duties at shortstop but this club doesn’t have many holes.

2. The Red Sox got a lot (read: a solid, back end bullpen arm) for a guy who can’t hit righties (.214 avg & .296 OBP in 529 AB) and a pitcher that’s clearly not ready for prime-time in Kyle Weiland (7.66 ERA in 24 2/3IP).

With Lowrie, if you take a smaller sample size of 2011 only, he hit .210 with a .277 OBP. People remember how hot he got over a stretch in 2010 but the numbers aren’t lying here. And when you throw in his defensive liabilities (15 errors in 82 games at SS & 3B), it’s hard to see where the value is as an everyday player.

Weiland could develop into a good bullpen arm but he’s got to get more consistent with his command and his movement. He was really easy to hit in the majors last year. That cutter was particularly shaky.

3. With all the talk about Yu Darvish & the Rangers, one aspect is being overlooked. Not only would Darvish have to adjust to life in America, he’d have to shift from pitching at home in a dome to the intense heat of Arlington, Texas. Every baseball observer should take notice when Nolan Ryan stakes $51.7 million dollars on a young man’s pitching ability. Don’t be surprised if the Rangers protect their investment as the marathon that is the MLB season moves on in 2012.

4. GM Mike Rizzo of the Nationals will be discussed in ten years as one of the best general managers in the game. The man is a winner with a fierce competitive streak. Make no mistake, the move to get LHP Gio Gonzalez is a bid to win the National League East. With the four years of control the Nationals have, it’s a sound investment as well.

Very few people remember what the price for Pedro Martinez was. Very few remember what the price the Yankees paid for Roger Clemens was or what the Reds gave up for Tom Seaver. If you can get the ace, give up the prospects and go from there.

Texas in 7. St. Louis has an edge in the front of the rotation with Carpenter & Garcia but I love Texas’ bullpen with Feliz at the end and Ogando able to come in and eat 3-4 innings when needed. Texas has the edge on offense. Given what happened last year in San Francisco, those hitters are hungry for redemption. I think they get it in a tight, back and forth series.

WordPress seems to have disappeared the LCS post I published, so here’s a super-shortened version of my thoughts on what’s going to happen in each series:

Detroit vs. Texas:
I love the Rangers to head to the World Series here, not because the Tigers aren’t a good ballclub. Detroit has certainly matched up against the Rangers very well during the season, taking six of nine games with Texas this year.

I just don’t see both Doug Fister and Rick Porcello being able to continue their success against a full-strength Rangers lineup in the post-season. If the Rays outstanding staff couldn’t hang with Texas, I don’t see the Tigers being able to do it over a seven game series.

Texas in six.

Saint Louis vs. Milwaukee:
Get your lucky coin and flip it! These teams split an eighteen game series during the regular season and they know each other about as well as you can. I’m taking the Brewers because of the home field advantage and because their bullpen with Saito, KRod and Axford is just flat out better than what the Cardinals have to offer.

Brewers in seven.